CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 3:05 p.m. EDT 6 July 2026 $4,147.90 (Basis the August 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,975
Initial Timeframe: 7 July 2026 to 20 July 2026
Stop Loss: $4,225
CPM’s last Gold Trade Recommendation was a Sell Recommendation on 24 June when gold was trading at $4,017.70. CPM had a downside target as low as $3,800. We put a stop loss at $4,125.
Gold traded as high as $4,215.50 today, taking out that stop loss two days earlier.
CPM expects the gold price to trade sideways to lower over the next two weeks.
Fundamentals suggest sideways to lower prices, with investors in some markets continuing to buy physical gold while other geographic and economic markets have seen investors either pull back or sell. Speculative buying has been reduced.
Economic environmental conditions also suggest sideways to lower prices. Economic output is relatively healthy. There are signs of weakening economic conditions, including lower employment and reduced investments away from the AI data center, crypto, and energy segments of the global economy. At the same time inflation pressures remain high, even though petroleum prices have declined back to their levels in February prior to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Political economic conditions suggest the potential for higher prices. Ukraine appears to be gaining a military advantage and domestic Russian conditions are deteriorating. Russia has closed its western borders and is moving toward another large mobilization of civilians into the military. There are western European and U.S. warnings that Russia may be planning to provoke NATO, and President Trump spent 90 minutes on the phone with Vladimir Putin on Sunday 5 July discussing Russia and Putin’s positions. Meanwhile conditions in the Middle East are deteriorating less than half-way through the 60 day ceasefire extension. The U.S. government has warned the Iranian government of possible Israeli plans to attempt to assassinate Iranian leaders responsible for negotiating with the U.S. government, and also have warned of Israeli plans against Turkey as well as continued military moves into Lebanon and Syria.
Technical analysis also places gold prices at or near crucial levels. Prices may move higher to test technical resistance around $4,230 and $4,300. Should gold not rise past these levels renewed technical short selling could push gold lower.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
