Global oil shock from Iran war may require ECB hikes, Lane says

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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FRANKFURT, May 13 (Reuters) - A global oil shock from the Iran war may well require the European ​Central Bank to raise interest rates ‌to stop higher fuel costs from spreading to wages, expectations and broader prices, the ECB's chief economist Philip ​Lane said on Wednesday.

Lane laid out ​the case for a well-telegraphed ECB rate hike in ⁠June, which some policymakers see as the first ​of several, despite an unfolding hit to economic growth ​for the energy-importing euro zone.

"The optimal response might be smaller for an exogenous supply disruption than for a ​demand shock but there are several reasons ​why an active response may be required," he told an ‌audience ⁠in London.

Among those reasons, he noted that the Iran conflict was coming hot on the heels of a bout of high inflation following ​the end ​of the ⁠COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, meaning firms and consumers ​were likely more attentive to prices.

Lane ​reaffirmed ⁠the ECB's line that "a mid-size but not-too-persistent overshoot could warrant some measured adjustment" while the response ⁠had ​to be "appropriately forceful or persistent" ​in the case of a more pronounced and lasting inflation ​surge.

Reporting by Francesco Canepa; Editing by Nia Williams

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