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Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:55 a.m. EDT Comex 18 August 2022 $1,773.10 (Basis the December 2022 Comex Contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,760
Initial Timeframe: 18 August 2022 to 26 August 2022
Gold prices fell to a low of $1,771.40 today before recovering. An appreciating U.S. dollar appears to be weighing on gold prices most recently. Seasonal weakness in both investor and industrial demand coupled with technical trends meanwhile continue to point toward lower prices.
Prices have been testing technical supports at $1,780 and $1,770 in recent days. A settlement below $1,770 would reinforce short-term downward price pressures.
The next stops could be $1,760 with $1,750 quickly following. Economically, financially, and politically not much has changed since the last Trade Recommendations was published. Inflation remains high with monetary officials’ bias toward tightening monetary conditions to help tamp down inflationary pressures. There are some economic sectors, such as housing, recently showing some signs of slowing or in some case even contracting, which is the result of rising interest rates, high housing costs, a shortage of lower priced housing, and consumer resistance to taking on new mortgages in the face of a potential economic downturn.
Meanwhile there continues to be a divide between mainstream economic views and gold-bug views. The mainstream view remains that the Fed is likely to continue to aggressively raise interest rates through December, as seen in the CME FedWatch Tool. This is in stark contrast to the gold-promoter views on the internet that they Fed will be ‘forced’ to ‘pivot’ toward lowering rates perhaps as hear as this month or at its September FOMC meeting.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
