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Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:41 a.m. EST 17 March 2023 $1,966.50 (Basis the April 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,920
Initial Timeframe: 17 March 2023 to 31 March 2023
Gold prices have rallied more than $150, peaking at $1,969.60 today before easing some, from a recent low of $1,813.40 in the middle of last week.
The catalyst for rising prices has been the headlines about banks facing financial troubles. This should have been expected to an extent given that rising interest rates will adversely affect everyone, including those banks not prepared to manage their risks.
The banking industry is not in the same condition as it was in 2008, however, when a broad swath of banks faced catastrophic failure and some did fail. Similarly, monetary authorities are much more readily prepared to address banking issues than they were in 2008. This is not 2008, and it is neither as bad as or worse than the banking crisis of that year.
The bank "the sky is falling" hysteria is likely to dissipate, popping like a Chinese spy balloon off the coast of the Carolinas. This may happen before next Wednesday's FOMC announcement, but it may wait until after that announcement. CPM expects the FOMC to increase rates by 25 basis points. Gold prices seem set up to drop precipitously after the market hysteria passes. This will follow what has aided the move higher, including the short covering, technical buying, and the roll of the Comex April contract into forward months. The first stop for gold could be $1,920.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM's analyses provided in CPM's monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm's price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM's preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.
Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper
