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Time Stamp
Prices as of 1:52 p.m. EST 12 April 2023 $2,025.70 (Basis the June 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,990 - $2,050
Initial Timeframe: 12 April 2023 to 28 April 2023
Gold prices have been firmly trading above $2,000 since late last week. Concerns remain about the state of the banking system, but headlines may have to persist to help keep gold prices supported at current levels. Gold prices have reached as high as $2,049.20 followed by some profit-taking. Price volatility picked up today as U.S. inflation data was released, briefly pushing gold to test $2,043.90 before retreating.
While prices may rise a bit further in the absence of any further bad economic news, possibly to $2,050, the potential for profit-taking by shorter term investors that could take gold back below $2,000 is at least equally great. As a consequence, while short term short or long positions might yield interesting returns, the almost-equally divided probabilities of either move suggest perhaps standing aside for now in the absence of any compelling news.
It is likely that prices will fall back below $2,000 beyond this month, but in the interim there is scope for prices to move $30 in either direction from present levels. It may take an appreciating U.S. dollar to weigh on gold prices or exogenous factors to provide some direction to price. Technical support and resistance levels that are breached also will influence prices. Regardless, gold is expected to break out of the current range, which would provide a firmer buy or sell direction once it does.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk - high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.
Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper
