S&P 500 rose late session in expectation of bolstered rate cutting bets via cooler GDP (and unemployment claims), but that didn‘t happen – the bulls have one more obstacle ahead of core PCE to grapple with – and they stand better chance of doing so (forcing a draw at least) today than as regards next week‘s opening gap as markets are closed tomorrow – Happy Easter if you celebrate!
This is how I summed it up in the GDP run up in our channel.
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5,270 will be most easily challenged and perhaps broken next week (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com), depending on the magnitude of core PCE surprise. Overcoming 5,320s has to wait till Jun rate cut is uncontested again just as the move in its odds showed from Tue to Wed (61% to 64%). I‘m striking a cautious tone as regards the great equities appreciation and beautiful rise in Treasuries and Russell 2000 amply talked three months ago.
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