CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:35 p.m. EDT 5 July 2024 $2,394.40 (Basis the August 2024 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,410
Initial Timeframe: 5 July 2024 to 19 July 2024
Gold prices could move higher in the next couple of weeks before potentially retreating. There is building support for prices from the political environment in the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, and from many other parts of the world. There appears to be rising concern about President Biden’s ability to be reelected and, if reelected, manage the duties of the President. This rising uncertainty is supportive of gold prices. As the Democratic Party moves to find a replacement candidate would elevate uncertainties and concerns among investors, likely to be reflected in gold purchases.
Economically, the world continues to fare well, but the slowing down in economic output in many countries and regions is creating an underpinning of concern about economic trends in the near future. Additionally, there are some rising expectations in financial markets that interest rates could move lower in the months ahead. Inflation has cooled and unemployment has risen only slightly.
Gold prices have been moving sideways since early April, between $2,285.20 and $2,448.80, creating firmer support and resistance levels along the way. The length of time that gold has traded within this range perhaps makes it more difficult for prices to break out. Technical trading suggests a continuation of trading in this range until there is a catalyst to move prices outside of this range.
Prices are in an uptrend now, likely to test resistance levels before easing thereafter. The seasonal weakness that typically takes hold of markets around this time of year appears to be on hold for the moment.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
