CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 1:41 p.m. EDT 16 July 2024 $2,468.10 (Basis the August 2024 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside, Take Profits
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,400 - $2,500
Initial Timeframe: 16 July 2024 to 2 August 2024
Gold prices rose past CPM’s $2,425 buy target today, touching $2,470. Prices are volatile and rising based primarily on unsettling U.S. political developments, as opposed to economic concerns. Saturday’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump has been followed by a wave of divisive and dishonest speeches at the Republican National Convention.
More significantly, Trump-appointed Judge Aileen Cannon’s throwing out the Trump criminal classified documents case on spurious political arguments elevates the politicalization of the judiciary by the Trump Administration and opens the channels now for the Justice Department to argue for her removal from the case. The political jostling in the U.S. judicial system will now add a potent element of further political instability in the United States, which will not bode well for the United States and the world either economically or politically.
In this environment gold prices should be expected to become even more volatile. They could rise to $2,500 within a matter of days. Profit taking equally would knock $60 off the current price, taking gold briefly back down to $2,400 or so.
What To Do With Gold Positions Now
Bold investors might stay long.
Others could go short and look to reposition long if prices fall on profit taking.
Options-capable investors with long gold positions might stay long the physical gold and buy put to protect against a decline in prices on profit taking or other reasons.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
