CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 4:10 p.m. EDT 19 August 2024 $2,530.00 (Basis the December 2024 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,420 - $2,575
Initial Timeframe: 19 August 2024 to 30 August 2024
CPM is maintaining its view that gold prices will remain volatile in a sideways fashion with an upward bias over the next couple of weeks, and are recommending that all but the most experienced and facile short-term investors stand aside.
Gold prices are likely to flop around quite a bit this week and next, in part as market participants guess, hope, and pray for clarity about interest rate directions. There has been certainty in these beliefs that the Fed will reduce ratees at its September 17 – 18 FOMC meetings, but recent mixed economic data releases, in inflation, retail sales, industrial production have led to some greater caution across markets.
U.S. political issues will add to the emotional uncertainty in financial markets, in light of the Democratic Convention this week and recent changes in the presidential election landscape. Political developments in the Russian-Ukraine war, and possibly in other places including the Israeli invasion of Gaza and other international hot spots will add to this environment.
Gold prices remain pointed higher, for all of the reasons or issues just listed and more. That said, the long positions of institutional investors appear to many bullion market veterans to be ‘maxed out,’ suggesting a round of profit-taking closing out long positions could push prices lower.
Given all of this, standing aside seems the most prudent short-term posture, maintaining long positions but not trying to guess the next emotional twitch in prices.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
