Gold prices have retreated from recent record highs as rising yields and a strengthening dollar suggest a potentially less aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This shift comes amid a series of economic indicators that suggest a less aggressive rate-cut by the Fed next month.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently revised its estimate for second-quarter GDP growth to 3%, up from the initial reading of 2.8%. This upward revision underscores the economy's resilience despite prevailing high interest rates, challenging assumptions about the immediate need for monetary policy easing.
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report, a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve, has further complicated the economic landscape. The report revealed that consumer spending increased by a robust 0.5% last month, aligning closely with economists' expectations.
The PCE price index rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% year-over-year, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.2% monthly as anticipated. However, the 12-month core inflation figure came in at 2.6%, slightly below the estimated 2.7%.
This PCE report will be the last one available to the Federal Reserve before its September 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While Fed officials will get the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on September 11, the core PCE remains their preferred inflation measure and is likely to carry more weight in their deliberations.
Attention now shifts to next week's jobs report, which will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for the September rate decision. Federal Reserve officials will scrutinize the August hiring numbers for any signs of continued labor market contraction, with particular focus on the latest unemployment figures.
A worsening unemployment rate could incentivize the Fed to cut rates more aggressively in an attempt to cushion the economy from the potential repercussions of a cooling job market.
The dollar gained 0.34% taking the index to 101.738. Dollar strength, coupled with rising yields, contributed to the decline in gold prices today. As of 4:45 PM EDT, the most active December gold futures contract was fixed at $2,535.70, representing a daily decline of $18.80 (-0.74%).
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