CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:47 a.m. EDT 18 September 2025 $3,678 (Basis the December 2025 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,710
Initial Timeframe: 18 September 2025 to 30 September 2025
Stop Loss: $3,650
Gold prices reached a record $3,744 yesterday following the Federal Reserves’ rate reduction decision and commentary about the U.S. economy. Prices fell sharply soon after reaching this peak. As has been noted in previous CPM reports, economic conditions are softening but not contracting markedly. A good deal of strength remains in the U.S. economy, as well as globally. Market forecasters suggest a continued rate cute environment heading into early 2026, which implies they expect continued deterioration in economic conditions. This should all be positive for gold prices, but other factors need to be taken into account, including financial and political conditions.
Stock indices along with other asset classes are at or near record highs. It would not be surprising to see a sell-off across markets in the following weeks and or months. This includes gold. October is typically a month when equity indices along with other assets retreat after having typically risen in September.
While many factors supportive of gold prices remain in place, there is scope for a sell-off. A break below $3,650 and other support levels below this could result in a sell-off in gold that could push prices as low as $3,400. A sell-off of such could be taken advantage of if timed appropriately.
Gold would still be expected to remain in an uptrend, however, following any sizeable retreat.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
