Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin has rallied over 8% in the first five days of January, maintaining bullish consolidation within the daily TBO Ichimoku Cloud. However, the broader daily macro trend remains bearish, as indicated by the TBO Slow line and the absence of a TBO Close Short. On-Balance Volume sits above its moving average and is beginning to curl upward, while overall volume, despite outperforming its moving average, has yet to break the downward trajectory. My primary upside target remains the weekly TBO Fast line near $98,637 (subject to weekly candle fluctuation), with extensions to the top of the weekly Cloud at $101,481 or the daily Cloud around $104,000. Traders should remain cautious, viewing these levels as fluid targets rather than certainties, especially given the potential for a bull trap.
Additionally, the daily RSI recently tested overhead resistance and a red daily close could signal a retracement toward $90,000. A lack of confirming volume would suggest any advance is artificial, likely driven by liquidations. Notably, the daily TBO Resistance line is dropping sharply from $125,000 to $94,000—a pattern observed only at significant pivot highs—while a small CME gap at $91,555 poses a further downside risk.
Ethereum and Correlated Assets
Ethereum’s technical setup mirrors Bitcoin’s, with similar TBO Cloud dynamics, RSI, OBV, and volume patterns. The key distinction lies in Ethereum’s weekly TBO Fast line, which sits just 4.5% above current levels, suggesting a closer upside target than Bitcoin’s. Should Bitcoin sustain its advance and close positively for the day, Ethereum may target the price-based resistance zone near $3,435, approximately 6% above spot, before encountering significant supply.
Market Dominance Shifts and Altcoin Rally
Combined stablecoin dominance has declined as anticipated in January, now trading deeper within a bearish consolidation phase of the daily TBO Cloud. The RSI at 15.48 is deeply oversold, typically preceding a corrective bounce that could pressure Bitcoin and broader crypto markets. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) also exhibits oversold RSI around 24.03, has breached the 59% support level, fallen below the daily TBO Cloud into strong bearish mode, and confirmed a TBO Open Short, all indicating capital rotation into altcoins.
Consequently, the Others.D index is in bullish consolidation without extreme RSI overbought readings, suggesting continued altcoin outperformance. Both TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D maintain bullish consolidation; TOTALE50.D is overbought at RSI 81, while TOTALE100.D confirmed a TBO Close Short but has not yet reached overbought levels. The market cap charts for these indices remain constructive, supporting further alt rallies.
Traditional Finance Indicators
The US Dollar Index has returned below the daily Ichimoku Cloud in strong bearish mode following a failed attempt to sustain an upper wick. The S&P 500 retains strength despite last week’s confirmed bearish divergence cluster on its TBT setup, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time high at 49,209. In contrast, both the Nasdaq and the FANG index remain in bearish consolidation phases.
Volatility (VIX) remains subdued but sensitive to S&P declines. International equity markets display mixed signals: the Nikkei is approaching a new high with RSI breaking above resistance, signaling further upside; the Shanghai Composite is printing a late-stage TBO Breakout, potentially indicating exhaustion; and the Hang Seng has resumed its uptrend, all underpinned by the ongoing January effect.
Commodities Overview
Gold is advancing toward its TBO Resistance line, poised to complete a TBO Springboard Bounce this week. Silver shows recovery as daily RSI normalizes after a sharp decline, while platinum is likewise exhibiting a springboard bounce pattern. Copper has surged to a new all-time high just above $6 per pound, reflecting robust industrial demand and risk-on sentiment.
Selected Altcoin Spotlights
XRP has surged over 30% since January 1, but with daily RSI above 90 and price at the top of its daily TBO Cloud, a pullback should be expected. Sui’s 35% rally following months of consolidation looks driven by short squeezes and may offer a reversal short opportunity once the initial peak is in. Mantle is bouncing neatly from daily TBO support coinciding with an RSI reset, while Pepe’s momentum shows weakening volume and waning RSI after an RSI peak at 92.63.
RENDER has surprised with a 90% gain into its weekly TBO Fast line, echoing prior 10–15% extensions but constrained by the prevailing bearish macro. COAI’s second TBT bullish divergence, FET’s AI-driven gains, and Tezos’s bounce off long-term weekly support underscore niche narratives. IOTA and Virtual are also in late-stage extensions near critical Fibonacci and Cloud levels, while Fartcoin remains a barometer for risk appetite as it approaches its weekly TBO Fast line.
Learn my strategies and the tools I use every day by visiting The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor by Mastering Assets.
