CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:50 a.m. EST 12 January 2026 $4,634.50 (Basis the February 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 - $5,000
Initial Timeframe: 12 January 2026 to 23 January 2026
Stop Loss: NA
There are many bad things going on around the world. These have been pushing gold and silver higher, as investors sought the metals for their safe haven status. None of this mattered on Sunday night 11 January and Monday 12 January. What mattered was a frontal assault on the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank system by the Trump Administration. An attack on the independence of the Fed is an attack on the dollar, and carries with it enormous risks.
As a result of this attack gold prices rose to $4,638, up more than $130 from Friday’s settlement price. Silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, and a host of other metals rose sharply as well, while U.S. equities fell sharply in overnight futures trading.
CPM expects gold prices to rise over the next several months, as we do not see the chaos and risks abating. That said, this move comes on top of strong recent gains and prices have enormous downside potential as well as further upside.
Longer term, into late January and the rest of the first quarter, prices seem more likely to rise, as the risks in the political and economic environment remain highly unresolved and appear to be growing more severe. First, however, there may be a round of short term selling.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
