Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin printed a bearish engulfing candle on Thursday’s close, erasing mid-week gains and signaling a potential short-term pivot high as the daily RSI peaked in overbought territory. Thursday’s TBO Resistance shift to $81,708 confirms this warning, although past shifts have preceded further rallies.
The critical threshold remains the daily TBO Cloud. A close back inside the cloud, and especially below the daily TBO Fast line, would likely trigger a drop into “strong bearish” mode and drag RSI below its ascending support line.
Ethereum’s Bearish Signals
Ethereum underperformed, closing down 2.54% and breaching its daily TBO Fast line while RSI fell below ascending support. ETH is on track to test the lower TBO Cloud by weekend unless buoyed by news. On the ETH/BTC chart, loss of TBO support would expose further downside amid an oversold RSI.
Market Dominance and Altcoin Flows
Combined stablecoin dominance confirmed a surge to TBO support with a bullish RSI reset. A close above the stablecoins’ TBO Fast line would hint at a broad market pullback, potentially marking “the big one” for crypto assets.
Bitcoin Dominance topped out near 61% and has been sliding, fueling a rally in Others.D which broke its RSI “spaghetti” support. TOTALES.D shifted resistance from 91.20% down to 89.07%, echoing January’s pre-dump setup. Conversely, TOTALE50.D is nearing its 1.70–1.75% rejection zone after three prior rejections.
The total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins (TOTALES) remains “strong bullish” above its daily cloud following a resistance shift. TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 also hold above their clouds, confirming ongoing altcoin inflows despite pivot warnings elsewhere.
TradFi Market Update
The DXY is stalled at near‐term resistance, with a 99.516 gap still unfilled. USD/JPY opened a TBO short but has yet to tag its TBO Fast target amid speculation over Japanese MOF intervention. Equities show mixed signals: SPX hit a new ATH, DJI saw Thursday volatility around 50,000, NDX logs its sixth overbought RSI bar, and the FANG index nearly tapped TBO Resistance at 17,156.
NVDA bounced notably mid-week, TSLA continues higher despite an open TBO close short, and the VIX declines, underscoring a complacent risk-on mood. In Asia, the Nikkei attempts a second breakthrough while the Shanghai Composite consolidates at resistance.
Commodities and BTC/Gold Cross
WTI’s lower wick tested new lows but remains above Wednesday’s low, with RSI now around 40 and a gap at $68 awaiting fill. Gold is heading toward the top of its daily cloud, though volume and OBV are waning. Silver is already “strong bullish” above its cloud. Platinum’s compressed cloud warns of an imminent explosive move, and copper pushes resistance with falling volume. Uranium remains range-bound.
Notably, PAXG/BTC formed the first TBT bullish divergence since August 2025, while BTC/Gold printed a bearish divergence yesterday. These opposing signals suggest gold may offer superior hedge qualities if Bitcoin reverses.
Altcoin Spotlight
Several altcoins exhibit pivot and divergence alerts. SOL and DOGE appear to be topping near daily cloud resistance. XMR and MORPHO each printed TBT bearish divergences against flat TBO Slow lines. TON’s RSI peaked at 97.8, ZEC and ICP risk pullbacks after rapid rallies, and ALGO confirmed a breakout. ONDO remains robustly bullish. Overall, overbought conditions warrant cautious positioning.
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