*
Jan headline CPI +5.02% y/y vs +5.12% in Reuters poll
*
Jan core CPI +3.04% y/y vs +3.10% in poll
*
Finmin sees headline inflation back to target this year
*
Central bank is expected to raise rates further
(Recasts, adds finance minister's comment, detail)
By Satawasin Staporncharnchai
BANGKOK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Thailand's headline inflation
cooled to its lowest rate in nine months and came in below
analyst forecasts, helped by easing energy and food prices, with
the commerce ministry predicting consumer prices will decline
further this year.
The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.02% in
January from a year earlier, ministry data showed on Monday,
compared with a forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 5.12%.
Inflation is expected to be below 5% in February on lower
oil prices, senior commerce ministry official Wichanun
Niwatjinda told a news conference.
"Oil accounted for one percentage point of inflation in
January. So, if oil prices fall, it will reduce inflation a
lot," he said.
Still, the inflation rate remains above the central bank's
target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting the Bank of Thailand (BOT)
will raise its key interest rate further after hiking it at four
consecutive meetings to try to bring prices back within target.
The core CPI index was up 3.04% in January from a year ago,
versus a forecast rise of 3.10%.
The BOT said earlier that a continuing gradual rate rise is
an appropriate course for a policy consistent with growth and
inflation. It will next review policy on March 29.
Finance minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said inflation
should return to target this year.
Sharing a similar view, the commerce ministry is maintaining
its forecast for headline inflation at 2% to 3% this year,
having taken into account the upcoming elections and a rebound
in tourism, Wichanun said.
The ministry predicts 22 million to 25 million foreign
tourist arrivals this year, he said, adding higher tourist
numbers would increase demand-side inflation.
In 2022, headline inflation hit a 24-year high of 6.08%,
with the core rate at 2.51%.
(Reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai
Writing by Orathai Sriring
Editing by Ed Davies)
