The dollar had firmed on Monday after strong U.S. jobs data suggested interest rates there would stay higher for longer, at a time when central European central banks are seeking to end their tightening cycles with eyes on loosening later in 2023. "Powell's speech was slightly reassuring for investors ... so we can see a positive correction in the region's currency markets today," a dealer in Budapest said, adding that the forint's gains started already before fresh trade data were published which were also supportive for the currency. Hungary's trade deficit in December came in much smaller than analyst forecasts, data showed earlier in the day. The forint , which has gained 2.5% this year, firmed 1% to 389.85, while the Polish zloty was 0.3% firmer against the euro at 4.7425.
The Polish central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate on hold at 6.75% at its meeting later on Wednesday, and its comments will be watched closely for any clues on how the bank sees the inflation outlook. "The markets saw a drop in risk aversion yesterday, which should support the zloty. Today's MPC meeting is unlikely to bring any surprises and will have little impact on the PLN exchange rate," Alior Bank said in its daily report. "Our economists and consensus expect rates to be unchanged at the NBP Meeting," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "Growth has slowed down (y/y deceleration in GDP), but a few indicators such as the manufacturing PMI as well as sentiment surveys have improved in the past few months....Domestically generated inflation ticked down in the past month for the first time since the beginning of the tightening cycle." Central European manufacturing surveys in Poland and the Czech Republic beat market forecasts in January, while Hungary's reading showed continued growth, with firms reporting slightly improved prospects for the months ahead. CEE SNAPSHO AT
MARKETS T 0944
CET
CURRENC
IES
Latest Previou Daily Change s
bid close change in 2023
EURCZK Czech <EURCZK 23.7890 23.7840 -0.02% +1.55%
= crown =>
EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF 389.850 393.600 +0.96% +2.46%
= forint => 0 0
EURPLN Polish <EURPLN 4.7425 4.7560 +0.28% -1.12%
= zloty =>
EURRON Romanian <EURRON 4.8990 4.9014 +0.05% +0.89%
= leu =>
EURHRK Croatian <EURHRK 7.5330 7.5365 +0.05% +0.05%
= kuna =>
EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD 117.200 117.300 +0.09% +0.09%
= dinar => 0 0
Note: calculated from 1800
daily CET
change
Latest Previou Daily Change s
close change in 2023
.PX Prague 1364.85 1355.96 +0.66% +13.57
00 %
.BUX Budapest 45816.1 45217.1 +1.32% +4.62%
4 9
.WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1888.64 1870.87 +0.95% +5.39%
>
.BETI Buchares 12305.5 12339.2 -0.27% +5.50%
t 6 9
.SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 1153.11 1155.20 -0.18% +9.95%
P a P>
.CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 2122.06 2122.17 -0.01% +707.5
> 7%
.BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 864.04 864.04 +0.00% +4.78%
15 15>
.SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 611.41 611.42 -0.00% +1.65%
>
Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republic
CZ2YT= 2-year <CZ2YT= 5.7060 -0.0410 +300bp -14bps
RR RR> s
CZ5YT= 5-year <CZ5YT= 4.8910 -0.0160 +249bp -11bps
RR RR> s
CZ10YT <CZ10YT 4.4750 -0.0560 +209bp -13bps
=RR 10-year =RR> s
Poland
PL2YT= 2-year <PL2YT= 6.1250 -0.1290 +342bp -23bps
RR RR> s
PL5YT= 5-year <PL5YT= 5.9650 -0.0920 +356bp -18bps
RR RR> s
PL10YT <PL10YT 6.0510 -0.0820 +366bp -16bps
=RR 10-year =RR> s
FORWARD
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech <CZKFRA 7.17 6.91 6.30 7.20 Rep ><PRIBO
R=>
Hungary <HUFFRA 14.58 12.88 11.58 16.05 ><BUBOR
=>
Poland <PLNFRA 6.94 6.83 6.48 6.92 ><WIBOR
=>
Note: are for ask
FRA prices
quotes
********************************************
******************
(Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw, Krisztina Than
in Budapest; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
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