NABIULLINA ON THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET "As for the size of the budget deficit - much will depend on how the macroeconomic situation develops." "Of course, any additional deficit and increase in government demand increases aggregate demand and therefore affects inflation." NABIULLINA ON CONSUMER LOANS "The share of loans to already-indebted borrowers is growing and we see there are also shifts in mortgage lending. For example, in the primary market, the share of loans to borrowers with a down-payment of less than 20% has reached 69%. We will follow this carefully and, if necessary, use macroprudential regulation measures ... in order to ensure the appropriate quality of loans is being provided, otherwise we could end up with problem borrowers and social problems." (Reporting by Reuters)
(Adds Nabiullina on consumer loans)
Feb 10 (Reuters) - Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira
Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin gave a news conference
on Friday after the regulator held its key interest rate at
7.5%.
The quotes below were translated from Russian by Reuters.
NABIULLINA ON INFLATION:
"We don't have full data about inflation for January, but
weekly data shows that in January the pace of price growth
probably increased to the highest levels since April last year."
"In general, the pace of growth in the core components of
inflation, according to our estimates, are still moderate. This
is largely due to restrained consumer demand."
"According to our assessment, the balance of risks has
shifted more towards pro-inflationary ones."
ZABOTKIN ON INFLATION IN 2023:
"The dynamics of annual inflation this year will be very
much determined by the months of last year dropping out of the
calculations. We had very high monthly values in March and
April, and when they drop out of the calculations, respectively,
there will be a very rapid decline in annual inflation. Most
likely we will be below 4% in April."
"But then, the very low levels of monthly price growth which
were observed in June, July, August and until the end of the
year will begin to come out of the calculation. As they go out
of the calculations, respectively, the annual inflation rate
will increase, and by the end of the year we expect it to be in
the range of 5-7%."
NABIULLINA ON RUSSIA'S GDP FORECASTS
"We have improved the forecast for GDP this year. This is
due to both the upwards revision of estimates of previous
periods, and to more significant budget expenditures than were
taken into account in our October forecast."
"As for GDP dynamics, quarterly dynamics are already
positive in the third and fourth quarters. If we talk about
annual indicators, in our opinion, GDP will move into positive
territory in the middle of the year. As for the overall GDP
estimate for this year, we give a symmetrical range (of growth)
from -1% to 1%."
NABIULLINA ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
"The risks of a global recession have decreased. The opening
of China's economy after the removal of COVID-19 restrictions,
the fact that central banks in advanced economies are close to
the peak of their interest rate increases, falls in energy
prices, primarily in Europe - all of this has a positive effect
on developing economies, including Russia's key trade partners.
However, the positive effects of this for Russia will be
restrained by sanctions."
NABIULLINA ON OTHER INTEREST RATE OPTIONS:
"A cut in rates was not considered today. There were
proposals to raise the key rate. Nevertheless, a consensus was
formed on holding the rate with some tightening of the signal.
We did not consider in detail the option of raising the rate."
NABIULLINA ON OIL
"Today, the government announced a voluntary reduction in
Russia's production by 500,000 barrels per day from March. We
will monitor the impact of this decision on oil prices. Compared
to October, our forecast for oil prices in 2023 has been
lowered."
"Yes, there may be some impact on prices, on volumes, on
exports, but it will take some time to assess. We will most
likely be able to do it by ... April."
"As for assessing the consequences of the (EU) embargo on
petroleum products, it came into force only a few days ago and
its effects are not yet clear."
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.