Feb 16 (Reuters) - Russia rained missiles across Ukraine and struck its largest oil refinery, Kyiv said, while the head of the Wagner mercenary group predicted the long-besieged city of Bakhmut would take weeks if not months to fall.
FIGHTING
* Echoing a pattern of heavy aerial bombardment at times of Ukrainian battlefield or diplomatic advances, Russia launched 32 missiles in the early hours, Ukraine's Air Force said. Half were shot down, it added, a lower rate than normal.
* Among them, air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said. Other missiles struck northern and western Ukraine as well as the central regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad.
* However, Ukraine's energy minister and the national power grid operator signalled that the overnight Russian air strikes had not caused major disruption to electricity supplies.
* Russia has usually carried out its biggest waves of air strikes in daylight, striking energy facilities, but Ukrainian officials suggest Moscow is starting to adapt strategy, including using air balloons for reconnaissance.
* Russia and Ukraine exchanged 101 prisoners of war in their latest prisoner swap on Thursday, authorities said.
* Russia's current battlefield focus is on the small city of Bakhmut in Donetsk, one of two provinces making up the easterm Donbas, Ukraine's industrial heartland now partially occupied by Russian forces.
* Russian Wagner militia chief Yevgeny Prigozhin forecast that Bakhmut, now bombed-out from months of heavy shelling, would fall next month or in April, depending on how many men Ukraine throw into the fight and how well his men are supplied.
Reuters was unable to verify the battlefield reports.
POLITICS, SANCTIONS, AID
* European Union countries are "on good track" to adopt new sanctions against Russia in time for the Feb. 24 one-year anniversary of Moscow's invasion, according to diplomatic sources in the bloc's hub Brussels.
* Russian President Vladimir Putin's future in power has become less certain in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, a Western official said, but it isn't possible to predict when any changes in the Kremlin may occur.
* Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said Moscow had never asked Minsk to go to war in Ukraine, and that he would only order his troops to fight alongside ally Russia if another country attacked Belarus, state-run Belta news agency reported.
* Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Thursday in the first such visit since Russia's invasion, offered support for a Ukrainian peace initiative at the United Nations next week.
* NATO countries are ramping up production of artillery munitions as Ukraine is burning through shells much faster than the West can make them, the alliance said.
* British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Polish President Andrzej Duda agreed on Thursday on the importance of stepping up support to Ukraine in the coming weeks, Sunak's office said.
* Filmmakers from the world over gathered in Berlin for the city's film festival, which is due to be opened later on Thursday with a video address by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
