*
Q4 GDP -1.5% q/q vs +0.5% in Reuters poll
*
Q4 GDP +1.4% y/y vs +3.5% in Reuters poll
*
2022 GDP +2.6% vs +3.3% in poll, +1.5% in 2021
*
2023 GDP growth seen at 2.7-3.7% vs 3.0-4.0% seen earlier
(Adds details, official and economists' comment)
By Orathai Sriring and Kitiphong Thaichareon
BANGKOK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy
unexpectedly contracted in the final quarter of 2022 as a
rebound in the vital tourism sector was unable to offset falls
in key sectors including exports and manufacturing.
The planning agency responded by downgrading its outlook for
this year.
But the economy, Southeast Asia's second largest, should not
see a recession, thanks to a pick-up in tourism, the agency
said.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2022
was 1.5% lower than in the previous three months, according to
seasonally adjusted data issued on Friday by the agency, the
National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).
It was the first drop in five quarters and compared with a
Reuters poll forecast for a rise of 0.5%.
The economy had grown 1.1% in the third quarter, but in the
fourth it was weighed down by falls in manufacturing, exports
and public consumption.
Fourth-quarter GDP was 1.4% higher than a year earlier, with
annual growth slowing to the weakest pace in five quarters. That
compared with a forecast annual rise of 3.5% in the poll and the
third quarter's revised 4.6%.
Economies are conventionally judged to be in recession if
GDP contracts in two successive quarters, but the agency said
growth would return in January-March, thanks in part to
strengthening tourism.
As the sector recovers from the pandemic, China's reopening
is providing a further boost, helping offset some effect of
weakening exports.
"Looking beyond the weak fourth quarter though, we think the
economy is likely to benefit from a rebound in regional travel
this year, driven by China's reopening," economist Gareth
Leather at Capital Economics said in a note.
"We expect it to be one of the few economies in the region
to grow faster this year than last year".
Thammarat Kittisiripat, economist at Tisco Group, said he
still expected the central bank to raise interest rates further
at its meetings in March and May, as policymakers tried to curb
inflation.
For all of 2022, the economy was 2.6% larger than in 2021,
when its growth of 1.5% was among the slowest in Southeast Asia.
On Friday, the NESDC forecast 2023 growth in full-year GDP of
2.7% to 3.7%, revising down its earlier outlook of 3% to 4%. It
forecast a 1.6% fall in exports for the year.
"The global economy has slowed faster than predicted ... but
the revival of the tourism sector will remain a key driver of
the domestic economy," NESDC head Danucha Pichayanan told
reporters.
Elections that will be held no later than May should also
help domestic consumption, he added.
With the return of China's visitors, the agency now expects
Thailand to receive 28 million foreign tourist arrivals this
year, up from the 23.5 million projected earlier.
Thailand beat its tourism target in 2022 with 11.15 million
foreign visitors. It welcomed a record of nearly 40 million
visitors in pre-pandemic 2019, who spent 1.91 trillion baht
($55.75 billion).
($1 = 34.26 baht)
(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon and
Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Ed Davies and Bradley
Perrett)
