Projects best positioned to move ahead include Sempra Energy's Port Arthur plant in Texas, Energy Transfer LP's Lake Charles in Louisiana and NextDecade Corp's Rio Grande in Texas. They have all or most of the long-term LNG sales agreements needed to convince bank's that the projects are ready for debt financing, say analysts. Sempra said in January it has sold all the capacity needed to advance the first phase of Port Arthur. Buyers include Poland's Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA , U.S. oil producer ConocoPhillips and Germany's RWE AG . NextDecade has signed deals for about 64% of the first phase of Rio Grande and may soon push it to about 87%, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, a bank. Rio Grande's customers include Exxon Mobil Corp , Shell PLC , Portugal's Galp Energia and Japan's Itochu Corp . NextDecade could secure a financial go-ahead in the second half of this year, Morgan Stanley said. NextDecade has said that it was targeting a first-quarter FID for the project's first phase. Energy Transfer signaled on Wednesday it might miss its first-quarter target for a FID due to extreme competition for LNG buyers. It has deals to sell LNG to several firms, including Shell, China's ENN Group and Swiss commodity trader Gunvor. It takes roughly four years to build these giant plants, so their LNG is not likely to reach markets before 2027. But their production volumes will allow the United States to remain ahead of output from Australia and Qatar. SUPPLY ADDITIONS
The United States already has the capacity to produce the
most LNG in the world and would have been the biggest exporter
if not for the shutdown of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas after a
fire in June 2022.
"The United States still sits atop the ranking of global
LNG supply additions through 2030 ... followed by Qatar,
Mozambique, and Canada," analysts at energy consultancy Tudor
Pickering Holt & Co said in a note.
The United States should export around 11.8 bcfd this year
and 12.6 bcfd next, estimates the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. The seven U.S. export plants already in service,
including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 billion cubic feet
of gas into LNG each day.
The next U.S. LNG plants expected to open are the
QatarEnergy-Exxon joint venture at Golden Pass in Texas in late
2024, the first phase of Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in
Louisiana in 2024-2026, and Cheniere Energy Inc's expansion at its Corpus Christi plant in Texas in 2025.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
