INDIA RUPEE-Rupee poised to open higher, tracking NDF, disregarding weak Asia FX

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, tracking the overnight decline in the USD/INR non-deliverable forward (NDF) market. The 1-month USD/INR NDF indicates that the rupee is likely to open at 82.62-82.66, compared with 82.7325 in the previous session. "We do not see any particular trigger for the USD/INR coming off during the New York session and it was likely related to position adjustments," a trader at a private sector bank said. The lower opening for USD/INR, despite the decline in the other Asian, lends a downside bias on the pair and possibly a look at the 82.40-82.50 support, the trader said. Other Asian currencies were mostly lower, pressured by another robust economic data point that supported bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance for a prolonged period. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, data released on Thursday showed. This comes on the back of a better-than-expected January jobs report, healthy retail sales and higher-than-forecast inflation readings. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for the federal funds rate to reach 5.34% in July and to remain above 5% all year. Prior to the jobs report, the peak rate was itself below 5%. The Fed rate is currently in the 4.50%-4.75% range and two rate hikes of 25 basis points each at the next two meetings have been fully priced in. The focus now turns to the core U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, due later in the day. The dollar index should extend its rise towards 106 if PCE deflators lift the U.S. Treasury 2-year yield above the Fed rate, DBS Group Research said in a note. The U.S. 2-year yield is currently hovering at 4.70%. KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.75; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paisa
** USD/INR NSE Feb futures settled on Thu at 82.74
** USD/INR Feb futures expiry today
** Dollar index at 104.50
** Brent crude futures up 0.8% at $82.9 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.87%
** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures up 0.3% at 17,651
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $7.5 million worth of Indian shares on Feb. 22
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $85.9 million worth of Indian bonds on Feb. 22 (Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Savio D'Souza)

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