"Because of the controversies that have dominated headlines for months the NDP has not been getting its messaging out as effectively," Williams said. "Paradoxically that might be a strategy that works for the UCP." (Reporting by Nia Williams Editing by Denny Thomas and Josie Kao)
Messaging: nia.williams.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) By Nia Williams
Feb 28 (Reuters) - Four months into her premiership,
Alberta's conservative leader Danielle Smith has sewn up the
right-wing vote with her combative stance against Canadian
Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but faces a tougher time
wooing moderate Albertans ahead of the upcoming provincial
election.
The outcome of the May 29 vote in Canada's main
oil-producing province will have a huge bearing on Canada's
ambitious climate goals of cutting emissions 40% to 45% from
2005 levels by 2030.
A win for Smith's United Conservative Party (UCP) may force
Ottawa to make concessions on key decarbonization policies
including an oil and gas emission cap and clean electricity
regulations that have sparked resistance from the government of
Alberta, Canada's highest-polluting province.
After lagging in polls in 2022, the UCP has narrowed the gap
with Rachel Notley's left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP). A
February Leger poll showed the NDP holding only a narrow lead
province-wide and trailing in the key battleground of Calgary,
while an Abacus Data poll had the UCP taking the lead.
The turnaround came after Smith, an outspoken former radio
show host, replaced the deeply unpopular Jason Kenney as UCP
leader and premier in October and consolidated right-wing votes
in the traditionally conservative province.
But political analysts say she could struggle to appeal to
the roughly 25% of Albertans who polls show are undecided.
"We have a certain segment of conservative swing voters who
really do not like Danielle Smith," said Marc Henry, president
of Think HQ Public Affairs, whose late January poll also showed
the UCP nudging ahead.
"They may not be able to bring themselves to vote for the
NDP, but they could not vote or spoil their ballot."
Henry said turnout will be a determining factor,
particularly in Alberta's corporate oil hub Calgary. Rural
Alberta tends to vote conservative while the provincial capital
Edmonton, home to a larger proportion of public sector workers,
usually votes NDP.
Smith came to power following a leadership campaign that
slammed the federal and provincial COVID-19 pandemic response as
too stringent, championed Alberta's energy sector and
successfully tapped into Alberta's long-standing grievances
about federal over-reach by promising to stand up to Ottawa.
But she has watered down or walked back many of her most
controversial proposals, including Alberta sovereignty, pardons
for COVID-19 lawbreakers and a proposed oilwell clean-up program
that would have given royalty breaks to producers.
Jared Wesley, a politics professor at the University of
Alberta in Edmonton, said Smith's policies are proving less
radical than her rhetoric because she is being limited by
Alberta law and Canada's constitution, rather than because she
is pivoting to tap into mainstream support.
"The interesting question is does being rebuked like this
make her more appealing to the general public? For a
centre-right supporter, looking at how the institutions of
Alberta democracy keep her in check, does that make them more
likely to vote for her?" Wesley said.
Since taking office, Smith has come under fire for comments
on discrimination against unvaccinated people, her government's
dealings with First Nations Indigenous groups and
misrepresenting how many jobs are at risk from Canada's energy
transition.
Lori Williams, a politics professor at Calgary's Mount Royal
University said Smith's missteps have helped draw attention away
from the NDP.
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