CEE ECONOMY-Falling consumption weighs on growth of Polish economy in Q4

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Polish economy grew by 2.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with 3.6% in the third quarter, the country's statistics office said on Tuesday, confirming a slowdown caused by decline in consumption due to high inflation. The statistics office also said that in the fourth quarter seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.4% compared with the third quarter, versus a growth of 1.0% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. The readings are consistent with previously released data. "... in the fourth quarter there was a clear slowdown in the economy, while its structure is in my opinion in line with expectations," said Piort Bielski, director of the economic analysis department of Santander Bank Polska. "...consumption clearly slowed down, while investments did quite well and inventories continued to grow." Household consumption and total consumption both fell by 1.5% year-on-year. As a result, domestic demand slowed to 1.1% from 3.1% in the third quarter, according to the statistics office. The statistics office said investment growth accelerated to 4.9% in the fourth quarter from 2.0% in the third quarter of 2022. In January inflation amounted to 17.2% year-on-year. Analysts said economic activity indicators may deteriorate further in the first quarter of 2023, but there is a chance that they will gradually recover later this year. "... we will most likely see a decrease in (the first quarter) GDP y/y by about 0.5-0.8%," Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy said in a note. "However, the chances of getting out of the hole should appear already in the second quarter, thanks to which the annual GDP dynamics should be positive and amount to about 0.5-1.0%," she added. (Reporting by Anna Koper and Pawel Florkiewicz; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

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