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U.S. equity index futures little changed
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U.S. initial jobless claims 211k vs 195k estimate
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Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.4%
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Dollar, bitcoin decline; gold, crude rise
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~3.98%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: GOLDEN CROSS NEARS (0900 EST/1400 GMT) With the start of the new year, the Nasdaq Composite rallied strongly into its early February high. Since then, it has seen a choppy decline. Nevertheless, the tech-laden index is now up 10.6% year-to-date, and in what may be a constructive sign on the charts, a golden cross, where the 50-day moving average (DMA) crosses above the 200-day moving average, appears near:
The 50-DMA crossed below the 200-DMA (a death cross) on Feb. 18, 2022. The intermediate-term moving average has now been below the longer-term moving average for 263-straight trading days. That's the longest such streak since a 348-day trading-day run from January 2008 to June 2009. However, the spread between the rising 50-DMA, which ended Wednesday at 11,310, and the relatively flat 200-DMA, which ended Wednesday at about 11,404, has now narrowed to just -93.5 points. That's the tightest spread since Feb. 22, 2022, just shortly after the 50-DMA had crossed below the 200-DMA. With the 50-DMA now rising a little over 20 points per-session, a golden cross could occur over the next week or so. This especially if the IXIC were to use these moving averages as support and suddenly snap higher. However, if the IXIC breaks below the 50-DMA, it may lead to this moving average rolling under the 200-DMA if weakness were to intensify. Of note, the DJI saw a golden cross in mid-December of last year. The event occurred for the small-cap Russell 2000 in late January, and then for the S&P 500 in early February. None of these signals has yet to be nullified with a fresh death cross. This critical moment for the Nasdaq is approaching amid a number of major event risks in the form of a non-farm payroll report Friday, the latest CPI and retail sales data on March 14 and 15, and the next FOMC Meeting March 21-22. Thus, it remains to be seen of the Composite can join the golden-cross party, suggesting the potential that a major advance is under way.
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
