By Anushka Trivedi and Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI, March 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is
expected to open higher versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday,
helped by an overnight jump in U.S. equities and recovery of
Asian shares.
The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.20-82.25 to the dollar compared with
82.49 in the previous session.
It was always going to be a challenge to take USD/INR above
82.50, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. The rupee should
receive support from how other Asian currencies are doing, but
is unlikely to do much after the positive opening, the trader
said.
The concerns over the demise of Silicon Valley Bank look to
have receded to an extent, with the S&P 500 index rallying
overnight to halt a three-day losing run. Asian shares and
currencies rose.
The risk appetite was helped by U.S. inflation data, which
was in line with expectations. The U.S. consumer price index
(CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month in February after accelerating
0.5% in January. In the 12 months through February, the CPI
increased 6.0%, compared with 6.4% in January.
The data made increased the odds of a rate hike by the U.S.
Federal Reserve next week. A few economists, including those at
Goldman Sachs, had called for a pause in wake of the SVB crisis.
Nomura said the Fed may cut rates.
Following the data, futures priced in a near-80% chance of a
25 basis points Fed rate hike next week.
Perhaps the seeming return of stability in the (U.S.)
banking sector "is worth more of a relief rally" than the
anxiety over inflation, especially coupled with the sense that
50 bps hike at next week's Fed meeting looks relatively unlikely
now, ING Bank said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at
82.44; onshore one-month forward premium at 18.50 paisa
** USD/INR March futures settled on Tuesday at 82.5225
** USD/INR March forward premium at 5.5 paisa
** Dollar index drops about 0.2$ to 103.48
** Brent crude futures rises 1% to $78.3 per barrel
after falling 4% overnight
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.67%
** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures up 0.6% at
17,206
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $367.3
million worth of Indian shares on Mar. 13
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $38.6
million worth of Indian bonds on Mar. 13
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Varun H K)
