The ECB watches labour costs to determine how much of the
energy price shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine
filtered through to other areas of the economy and whether
rampant inflation becomes entrenched by increasing so-called
core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices.
In February, core inflation rose to 5.6% year-on-year from 5.3% in January, setting itself on a trajectory to match the higher costs of labour, in a sign the ECB may need to be more determined with rate increases to bring it down. Headline inflation is seen averaging 5.3% this year, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, the ECB said, adding that these projections were finalised before the current turmoil linked to the collapse of the SVB bank in the United States and share price troubles of Credit Suisse in Europe.
ECB policymakers have said that wage growth in the 5-6%
range this year still only represented a catch-up after
inflation eroded the real value of incomes, but such wage growth
was still inconsistent with the ECB's 2% inflation target.
(Reporting by Jan Strupczewski; additional reporting by Balazs
Koranyi in Frankfurt; editing by Nick Macfie)