off-the-wire

INDIA RUPEE-Rupee seen little changed tracking Asian markets; CS fallout eyed

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
By Anushka Trivedi MUMBAI, March 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to open little changed against the U.S. currency on Monday, as investor sentiment remained fragile despite a more-than-$3 billion deal over the weekend designed to rescue Credit Suisse and protect the global banking sector. The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.50-82.55 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.5525 in the previous session.


It was possible the rupee will find support from the UBS-Credit Suisse deal easing broader banking crisis woes, but 82.50 remains a tough resistance level for the currency, said a trader a Mumbai-based bank. UBS said it will buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion francs ($3.24 billion) in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities, which brought some relief to broader markets rattled by a financial sector fallout in the U.S. and Europe. Soon after, central banks including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan pledged to deepen support for liquidity, by increasing the frequency of seven-day dollar-swap operations from weekly to daily. Asian shares mostly fell and currencies were mixed as worries about a contagion from the banking turmoil persisted, with the Fed meeting due in this backdrop. Equities in the Philippines and Malaysia tumbled over 1%.


"Anxiety ahead of this week's Fed meeting and the accompanying message may keep risk sentiment more subdued than otherwise," wrote ING analysts in a note. Futures imply about a 60% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 25 basis point (bps) on Wednesday, after some calls for a pause had been made in the wake of the crisis. Markets await not just the Fed policy outcome, but also the central bank's dot plot to see how high the rates could go. The dollar index was little changed around 103.850.


KEY INDICATORS:



** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.72; onshore one-month forward premium at 19.06 paise


** USD/INR March futures settled on Friday at 82.6150


** USD/INR March forward premium is 3.5 paise


** Dollar index at 103.82


** Brent crude futures at $73.2 per barrel


** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.47%


** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.6% at 17,065


** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $20.2 mln worth of Indian shares on Mar. 16


** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $5.4 mln worth of Indian bonds on Mar. 16 ($1 = 0.9264 Swiss francs) (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)

anushka.trivedi.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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