(Corrects first-year recovery estimate to $3.7 billion from
$33.7 billion, in paragraph 6)
By David Lawder
WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The World Bank on
Monday said the February earthquakes are expected to have caused
Syria's real GDP output to contract by 5.5% in 2023, with
recovery and reconstruction needs estimated at $7.9 billion over
three years.
The World Bank said its Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment
report estimates the earthquakes that hit northern and western
Syria on Feb. 6 and Feb. 20 caused physical damage of $3.7
billion in the country, with another $1.5 billion in economic
losses for a combined damage impact of $5.2 billion.
The World Bank had previously projected a 3.2% contraction
in Syria's 2023 economic output, due to continuing conflict,
high grain and energy prices and shortages, along with water
scarcity that is limiting crop output.
The earthquakes will cause that GDP contraction to widen by
another 2.3 percentage points to 5.5% for the year, exacerbating
the effects of 12 years of conflict in Syria.
"The additional contraction is primarily driven by the
destruction of physical capital and disruptions in trade
activity," the World Bank said in a statement. "Inflation is
expected to increase substantially, primarily driven by the
reduction in goods available, an increase in transport costs,
and a rise in overall demand for reconstruction material."
The World Bank estimates recovery and reconstruction needs
across the six assessed regions at $7.9 billion, $3.7 billion of
that in the first year. It estimates $4.2 billion will be needed
over the two subsequent years.
The bank said the agriculture sector registered the largest
needs (27% of the total), followed by housing (18%), social
protection (16 %) and transport (12%).
(Reporting by David Lawder; Additional reporting by Andrea
Shalal; Editing by Chris Reese and Bill Berkrot)
david.lawder.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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