"Christine Lagarde will be reassuring on banks after the Swiss solution," one official said. "She will ask the leaders to complete their Banking Union and go forward on the Capital Markets Union."
"Her message is likely to be the ECB is determined on monetary policy but data-dependent, no forward guidance. There is no trade-off between financial and price stability goals. The ECB has parallel tools to do both," the official said.
EU DEPOSIT INSURANCE NEEDED TO COMPLETE BANKING UNION
EU leaders are likely to get a similar message on banks from
the chairman of euro zone finance ministers Paschal Donohoe.
"He is likely to say that overall banks are in good shape,
they have good capital liquidity buffers, although there is no
room for complacency as we have seen from the banking
turbulence," a second official said.
"He is likely call for continued steady progress on
completing the Banking Union, and to say Capital Markets Union
is important for competitiveness and more needs to be done."
"Completing the Banking Union" is EU code for introducing a
European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS), the last missing
element from the project launched in 2012.
The Banking Union is already two-thirds complete. The EU has
set up a single supervision of the euro zone's top banks in the
hands of the ECB and a single resolution authority with a
special fund to resolve failing lenders.
While most EU countries have some form of national insurance
that guarantees deposits up to 100,000 euros ($108,320.00),
there is no EU-wide scheme, nor a way for authorities to
cooperate across border if a banking crisis is too much for one
country alone.
The main opponent of EDIS is Germany, concerned that if
deposit guarantees are mutualised at EU level, Berlin could end
up paying deposits of failing banks in other countries, like
Italy, still burdened with poor credit or investment decisions
from years ago.
The Capital Markets Union was launched in 2015 to facilitate
access to private capital by EU companies, which now mainly
depend on bank loans for any financing. Progress has been slow
due to differences in tax, insolvency or prospectus laws of the
EU's 27 countries.
($1 = 0.9232 euros)
(Reporting by Jan Strupczewski; Editing by Richard Chang)