(Adds details, quotes, outlook)
BANGKOK, April 4 (Reuters) - Thailand's exports in the
first quarter are likely to show a contraction of 10% from a
year earlier, compared with a previous forecast drop of 8%, the
country's shippers' council said on Tuesday.
The global economy is slowing and a recovery in China's
economy is not as fast as expected, Chaichan Chareonsuk,
Chairman of Thai National Shippers, told a news conference.
Exports, a key driver of Thai economic growth, were not
expected to rebound until the second half of the year, he said.
The group expects exports to decline 4.7% in the second
quarter of 2023 from a year earlier before rebounding by 1.8%
and 12% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
"If everything goes as forecast and is manageable, second
half (exports) should show growth," he said, adding that last
year's low base would also help.
A relatively strong baht is a challenge for Thai
exports, the group said, adding the central bank had ensured the
currency would not be too volatile.
The baht traded at 34.27 per dollar at 0618 GMT, having
risen by 1% against the greenback so far this year.
"A baht exchange rate of 34 to 35 per dollar is acceptable
and in the same direction as (the currencies of) trade partners
and competitors," Chaichan said.
While the group maintains its forecast for export growth of
1% to 2% this year, Chaichan said a working target now should be
for export growth of "about 1% or less" due to increased
challenges.
The central bank forecast exports would drop 0.7% this year.
In the January-February period, customs-based exports
dropped 4.6% from a year earlier.
(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Staporncharnchai;
Editing by Ed Davies)
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