A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie
McGeever.
First Australia stood pat, then New Zealand stunned everyone
with a 50 basis point hike and the next interest rate decision
for Asian markets to zoom in on this week comes from India on
Thursday.
Chinese services PMI and Australian trade figures are also
on the docket Thursday, while remarks from Reserve Bank of
Australia governor Philip Lowe on could shed further light on
the RBA's outlook following Tuesday's policy decision.
Another batch of gloomy U.S. data and deepening recession
concerns on Wednesday will no doubt darken investors' mood.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise its repo rate by
a quarter percentage point to 6.75, according to a Reuters poll,
marking the end of the tightening cycle but maybe leaving the
door open for one more hike.
Economists reckon the RBI will maintain a hawkish stance
throughout the year, but rates traders are not so sure - current
market pricing points to 15 basis points of easing by the end of
the year and a full quarter point cut by next February.
It's a difficult one to call, and after the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand's hawkish surprise on Wednesday, investors would do well
to be humble in their predictions.
On the one hand, inflation in Asia's third-largest economy
is running at 6.44%, above the central bank's upper tolerance
limit of 6.00%, and the rupee is within touching distance of
last October's record low of 83.26 per dollar.
The rupee is expected to weaken further in the coming months
too.
But wholesale price inflation is declining rapidly, and
there are powerful global winds shifting in the opposite
direction - U.S. Treasury yields are the lowest since September,
pushed down by an expanding batch of weak economic indicators,
the latest being ADP private sector jobs data on Wednesday.
Wall Street is finally buckling, rates markets are now gunning
for almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year and the
dollar is sagging. Maybe the rupee won't depreciate that much
after all.
If Friday's U.S. payrolls report shows signs that the labor
market is softening, the doves may soon be out-muscling the
hawks - in Washington and beyond.
Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday: - India interest rate decision - RBA governor Philip Lowe speaks - China Caixin services PMI (March) <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ India inflation and interest rates ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)
5607Reuters Messaging: jamie.mcgeever.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))