*
WTO raises 2023 global trade growth f/cast to 1.7% (prev
1.0%)
*
2022 goods trade growth 2.7% vs Oct forecast of 3.5%
*
WTO chief urges countries to limit export curbs on food
GENEVA, April 5 (Reuters) - The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global trade growth this year, but still predicted a slowdown and warned of risks from the Ukraine war, geopolitical tensions, food insecurity, inflation and monetary policy tightening. The Geneva-based trade body said on Wednesday that merchandise trade volumes would increase by a "subpar" 1.7% in 2023. That was up from its October estimate of 1.0% but below the 2.6% average for the 12 years since trade volumes collapsed following the global financial crisis.
For 2022, it said a downturn in the final quarter resulted
in trade growth of 2.7%, lower than its previous 3.5% forecast.
The WTO said goods trade growth should rebound to 3.2% in
2024 as economic expansion picks up, but warned this forecast
was particularly uncertain, with multiple downside risks.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the threats
included continuation of the war in Ukraine and other
geopolitical tensions, resurgent inflation and the impact of
tightening monetary policy.
The WTO said trade growth had held up despite global
tensions and the threat of fragmentation into competing trading
blocs, which could reduce global economic output by 5%, had so
far been avoided. But this remained a risk.
"If we see investment patterns following the talk, we see
now, this might indeed have an impact on trade in the future
that we think would be detrimental," Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters.
The WTO also said wealthy countries needed to be on the
lookout for signs of a food crisis triggering hunger in
low-income countries.
It was unclear how the war would impact planting in Ukraine,
a major grains producer, while flooding or drought from climate
change could trigger a major crop failure elsewhere. Smaller
farmers in Africa in particular needed affordable fertilisers
and other inputs to be able to increase production.
Okonjo-Iweala said it was vital to limit export restrictions
on food. Some 35 countries have imposed 100 curbs on food and
fertilisers since Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Those eased in mid-2022, but had since risen to 67 at the start
of April 2023.
The WTO's forecast does not cover services, but the WTO said
international tourism was on a path to full recovery as COVID-19
restrictions are lifted, and that travel demand did not seem to
have been hit by economic uncertainty.
China's reopening of its borders should also boost regional
and global travel, the WTO said. Chinese tourists are the global
top spenders.
(Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop, Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber;
Editing by Catherine Evans)
