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U.S. equity index futures slightly red; Nasdaq 100 off
~0.4%
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U.S. initial jobless claims 228k vs 200k estimate
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Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.5%
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Dollar, crude edge up; gold, bitcoin dip
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~3.29%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ENOUGH THRUST OR BUST? (0902 EDT/1302 GMT) The Nasdaq Composite may have bumped up against a ceiling on the charts as it neared resistance at its September 2022 high. Indeed, with its 1.8% loss so far this week, the tech-laden index's three-week win streak is at risk. And now, after the latest jobless claims data came in worse than expected, e-mini-Nasdaq 100 futures are suggesting the Composite is poised to come under further pressure at the open.
That said, one measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength, on a monthly basis, still suggests that the IXIC may have enough thrust to ultimately see a greater advance:
The Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index, on a monthly basis, bottomed in October at 14.5%. It crossed back over its descending 10-month moving average (MMA) in January, and has now improved to 30.8%, which is its highest level since April of last year. With this, the measure's six-month rate-of-change is currently the third strongest reading coming out of a trough since the mid-1990s. Only the upturns out of its 2003 and 2009 troughs were stronger. This measure certainly has a lot of room to rise before reaching previous peaks. And even then, in a number of instances, including its most recent top in 2021, the Nasdaq moved still higher, while the NH/NL index, on a monthly basis, diverged. It's still early in April, but bulls will want to see this measure continue to trend higher.
A down-tick would be a concern, and a break below its 10-MMA, which has now risen to 21.2%, could see it threaten its lows again.
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
