Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: BOJ Governor Ueda gives inaugural press conference World Bank, IMF spring meetings begin <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Graphic-Unemployment rate ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Tom
Westbrook
A surprise drop in unemployment and steady-as-she-goes
hiring figures are boosting confidence among believers that the
United States economy can get through this year with just
relatively minor setbacks.
While faster-moving surveys last week seemed to paint a
picture of a March slowdown, Good Friday's non-farm payrolls
figures suggested the jobs market remains solid, with
unemployment back at more than 50-year lows.
It could be a case of laggy data, and to be sure market
attention is on whether banks tighten up lending in the wake of
last month's confidence wobbles, and on how and when that would
flow through to the real economy of jobs, wages and spending.
Earnings for Citi, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase & Co
later in the week will be in focus for colour on financial
conditions. Inflation figures due Wednesday can also help
markets to gauge how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to
be.
Yet in the meantime a measure of confidence is coalescing
around the U.S. interest rate outlook. Friday's jobs data lifted
yields, but didn't substantially shift a bigger picture view
that hikes are all but finished and cuts are coming.
Futures pricing implies one more 25 bp hike is
likely in May and that it won't stick - the entire U.S. curve from three months to 30 years is below 5%, the upper reach of the current Fed funds target
window.
In Asia, markets that were open in holiday-thinned trading
nudged higher, shaking off, for now, a round of sabre rattling
across the Taiwan Strait.
China is running military exercises in the wake of Taiwan's
president visiting the United States, while the U.S. scrambles
to find the source of a damaging document leak.
Australia, Hong Kong and most markets in Europe were closed
for Easter Monday.
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