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U.S. equity indexes fall: Nasdaq leads decline with ~0.4%
drop
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Materials weakest S&P 500 sector; comm svcs leads gainers
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Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.5%
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Dollar, gold rise, bitcoin ~flat; crude declines ~1%
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~3.51%
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THE CASE FOR A STOCK MARKET ADVANCE (1102 EDT/1502 GMT) While most of Wall Street is talking anxiously about when the recession will hit, and how bad it will be, Stifel market strategist Barry B. Bannister has raised his target for the S&P 500 by 5%. Bannister is forecasting a target range of 4,200-4,400 by Q2/Q3 2023, the midpoint of which would have the S&P rising just under 4% from Monday's close.
His argument is that there are "encouraging signs of economic resilience in mid-2023 " and he expects inflation to slow sharply, but not to the 1-2% range found in 2009-2019.
With this in mind, Bannister likes cyclical over defensive industry groups as a solid economy tends to favor cyclicals. As for the recession "it is only by late 2023 that we will become more concerned."
(Sinéad Carew)
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WALL STREET INDEXES GO SLIGHTLY RED (1012 EDT/1412 GMT) The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are now slightly lower early on Tuesday with earnings season and debt ceiling worries adding to jitters ahead of a key inflation reading due on Wednesday. After the latest crop of earnings reports PayPal is down 10% after it failed to impress, while Apple Inc supplier Skyworks is down almost 5% after issuing an underwhelming Q3 outlook.
Shares in electric vehicle (EV) maker Lucid Group Inc are down 6% after it reported lower-than-expected first-quarter revenue and trimmed its 2023 production forecast as a price war sparked by Tesla, hurt sales. In S&P sectors, real estate is falling most, while communication services is now the sole gainer.
While investors are waiting on U.S. inflation data they were also watching anxiously for any progress in Washington on efforts to reach a debt ceiling agreement with the potential for a default as early as June 1, if Congress does not act. U.S. President Joe Biden and top Republican lawmakers are expected declare their positions on the matter face to face in a 4PM meeting on Tuesday. Here is your 1012 AM EDT snapshot:
(Sinéad Carew)
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE VS RESISTANCE; RINSE AND RETREAT? (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) Like the S&P 500 index , the Nasdaq Composite's strength continues to be capped by particularly thorny resistance:
Since hitting a high of 12,270.189 in mid-September of last
year, and then falling to new lows, the Composite's recovery has
been unable to surpass this level.
Indeed, the IXIC ran out of steam in early February at
12,269.555, before suffering another sharp retreat.
And for the past six weeks, the September 2022 high has
continued to cap strength. The weekly highs over this period
have been around 12,228, 12,225, 12,206, 12,245, 12,228, and
12,265. On Monday of this week, the Composite's high was at
12,264.988 before it settled back to end at 12,256.917.
Given that this week will bring highly anticipated CPI data
on Wednesday, traders remain focused on whether the Composite
can break through the ceiling, potentially clearing the way for
further gains, or if it will once again fail, putting the index
at risk for another significant downdraft.
The rising 10-week moving average, which has done a good job
of supporting the IXIC since mid-March, is now around 11,980.
Meanwhile, in what may be of concern to bulls, on Thursday
of last week, the Nasdaq's daily advance/decline line did dip to
a fresh low. However, it has yet to see downside follow-through.
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
