CEE ECONOMY-Hungary's inflation slows further, central bank weighs policy easing

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
May 10 (Reuters) - Hungary's inflation slowed for a third straight month in April, with the headline rate falling a touch more than expected to 24.0%, data showed on Wednesday, potentially giving the central bank scope to pursue interest rate cuts. The inflation rate hit a peak of 25.7% in January but has been slow to retreat, and core inflation remains elevated. Forecasters, though, see a bigger decline later this year. The Hungarian bank is the first in central Europe to take tentative steps toward looser policy after hiking rates between 2021 and 2022 to multi-decade highs to counter an inflation surge driven by high energy and food prices.


Last month, it reduced the top of its interest rate corridor, a first step that could lead to a cut in its key 18% one-day deposit rate. The bank has said it will be watching the risk environment in deciding on next moves. April inflation data will not deter rate setters from considering easing policy even from this month, ING economist Peter Virovacz said. "The main factors regarding the one-day deposit rate are market turbulence, external balance, the stability of the forint and market interest rate expectations, so today's data only has an indirect impact," he said. "Had we seen a higher-than-expected print with a bad composition, that would have raised doubts in the market." The data showed food prices rose by 37.9% year-on-year in April, outpacing gains in most other European countries, and household energy prices jumped by 41.8% after the government curtailed utility bill subsidies last year.


The Hungarian central bank has come under pressure from the government to begin easing policy to help an economy that was in recession in the last half of 2022 and remained sluggish to begin 2023. March data released last week showed a large drop in retail sales as double-digit inflation continued to cut demand and hit household budgets.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Hungary inflation ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Gergely Szakacs in Budapest; Editing by Christina Fincher)

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