Industrial demand is expected to rise to record levels, the WPIC said, thanks largely to an expansion in China of glassmaking facilities which require platinum.
Supply, meanwhile, is expected to fall by 1% to 7.2 million ounces, partly due to electricity shortages in major producer South Africa.
That will leave the market undersupplied by 983,000 ounces, said the WPIC, having only two months ago predicted a deficit of 556,000 troy ounces this year.
"The market will need to rely upon above-ground stocks to meet the shortfall, but...it is not clear how freely available they are likely to be at current prices, particularly as a sizeable portion of above-ground stocks appear to be held in China," it said.
The platinum market was already undersupplied in the first three months of 2023 - the first quarterly deficit since the second quarter of 2021, the WPIC said.
Demand jumped by 28% in the first quarter as investors
bought bars and coins as a safe store of value amid global
economic uncertainty or as a speculative bet that deficits will
push platinum prices higher.
PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND ('000 oz)*
2022 2023f 23f/22 Q1 Q4 Q1
change 2022 2022 2023
%
SUPPLY
Refined 5,522 5,511 0% 1,273 1,329 1,178
Production:
South Africa 3,915 3,873 -1% 878 931 759
Zimbabwe 480 502 5% 117 123 121
North America 263 284 8% 66 65 69
Russia 663 647 -2% 163 160 180
Other 201 205 2% 49 49 48
Change in +43 +0 +24 +23 +24
producer
inventory
Total Mining 5,565 5,511 -1% 1,298 1,352 1,201
Supply
Recycling: 1,691 1,682 -1% 469
408 413
Autocatalyst 1,250 1,243 -1% 353
299 301
Jewellery 372 370 -1% 98
92 95 Industrial 68 69 2% 17
17 17
Total Supply 7,256 7,193 -1% 1,766 1,759 1,614
DEMAND
Automotive 2,897 3,255 12% 737
757 806
Jewellery -2% 466
1,899 1,861 457 455
Industrial: 2,245 2,628 17% 527
531 570
Chemical 684 749 9% 113 273 236
Petroleum 193 171 -11% 44 52 42
Electrical 106 97 -8% 30 24 23
Glass 414 730 76% 127 -21 56
Medical 278 287 3% 68 69 71
Other 570 594 4% 145 134 143
Investment: -640 433 N/A -165 -54 175
Change in Bars, 225 403 79% 59 1 102
Coins
Change in ETF -558 30 N/A -166 -62 43
Holdings
Change in Stocks -307 0 N/A -58 7 30
Held by
Exchanges
Total Demand 6,401 8,176 28% 1,566 1,691 2,006
Balance 854 -983 N/A 201 68 -392
Above Ground 4,774 3,790 -21%
Stocks
Source: World Platinum Investment Council, Platinum Quarterly Q1 2023 <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ WPIC platinum market balance Platinum price ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Reporting by Polina Devitt; editing by Kirsten Donovan)
