Jan 23 (Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
Now, as Fed policymakers note an improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a look at how officials view the outlook for Fed policy and how best to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances - for an accounting of how our counts have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: "If we continue to see a further accumulation of downside surprises in the data it's possible for me to get comfortable to advocate normalization sooner than the third quarter. But the evidence would need to be convincing." Jan. 18, 2024
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "Declaring victory would be premature ... But of course the question is when will it become appropriate to begin dialing back?" Dec. 13, 2023
Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, 2024 voter: "March is probably too early in my estimation for a rate decline." Jan. 11, 2024
Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be sufficiently restrictive ... I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate further at a future meeting." Jan. 8, 2024
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: "It's important that we start to move rates down ... we don't have to do it too fast, we're not going to do it right away, it's going to take some time." Dec. 20, 2023
John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: "It will only be appropriate to dial back the degree of policy restraint when we are confident that inflation is moving toward 2% on a sustained basis." Jan. 10, 2024
Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: "Getting inflation under control is critically important." Jan. 5, 2024
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough, against the risk of policy being too restrictive." Oct. 9, 2023
Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: "We shouldn’t take the possibility of another rate increase off the table just yet." Jan. 6, 2024
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "The key thing is the economy is doing well. It is giving us the flexibility to move carefully and methodically." Jan. 16, 2024
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: "When activity continues to run this hot, that makes me question if policy is as tight as we assume it currently is." Nov. 7, 2023
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: The Fed is "at or near the peak" of interest rates." Nov. 17, 2023
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "I see risks as two-sided, requiring us to balance the risk of not tightening enough against the risk of tightening too much." Nov. 16, 2023
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: "It takes patience. It takes gradualism." Jan. 19, 2024
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: "If we continue to make surprising progress, faster than was forecast, on inflation, then we have to take that into account in determining the level of restrictiveness ... but we don’t want to commit ourselves before the job is done." Jan. 19, 2024
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: The Fed should be "patient and resolute, and I wouldn't take additional firming off the table." Nov. 17, 2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred last July. Projections released on Dec. 13 showed no policymakers believe rates should go any higher this year, and a majority see them dropping by at least 75 basis points. Three policymakers – Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, and Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed's president on April 2 – have not made any substantive policy remarks and are not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
