April 22 (Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.
The following chart shows officials' latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: When it comes to a rate cut, "I think we're close, give us a couple of meetings." Feb 22, 2024
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it's appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us." April 16, 2024
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: Now expects one rate cut this year, in the fourth quarter, down from two previously (April 3, 2024). "Given that the U.S. economy has been so robust and so strong and so resilient, I can't take off the possibility that rate cuts may even have to move further out." April 9, 2024
Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation." April 5, 2024
John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: Three rate cuts in 2024 is "a reasonable kind of starting point." (Feb 28, 2024) "I definitely don't feel urgency to cut interest rates." April 18, 2024
Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, 2024 voter*: Three rate cuts in 2024 "feels about right." (Feb 29, 2024) "At some point, as we get more confidence, we will start to normalize policy back to a less restrictive stance, but we don't have to do that in a hurry." April 17, 2024
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: "My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further, with the policy rate held steady at its current level." April 16, 2024
Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: The latest inflation numbers "did not increase my confidence" that price pressures are easing. April 11, 2024
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: "It's very early to say whether we end up with a 'soft landing' or not." Feb 14, 2024
Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "This recent data underscores what I believe is the need for the Federal Reserve to be patient as we wait for clear and convincing evidence that inflation is on track to sustainably return to 2%." April 12, 2024
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "There is no rush to cut the policy rate." March 27, 2024
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: Penciled in two 2024 rate cuts in March. "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all." April 4, 2024
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "Fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time." March 25, 2024
Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: "I believe it's much too soon to think about cutting interest rates." April 5, 2024
Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: "If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate." April 3, 2024
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: Three rate cuts this year is "a very reasonable baseline." (April 2, 2024) "The worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency is not required." April 16, 2024.
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: At the median Fed expectation for three rate cuts in 2024 (March 25, 2024). After three straight months of stronger-than-expected inflation readings, "I think we have to recalibrate and we have to wait and see." April 19, 2024
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: Expectation is "in the range of two" rate cuts for 2024. "Less concern about labor market fragilities, combined with the possibility that policy is only modestly restrictive, also reduces the urgency to ease." April 11, 2024
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed's president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
*Mester hits the Fed banks' mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
