May 22 (Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
The following chart shows officials' latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: When it comes to a rate cut, "I think we're close, give us a couple of meetings." Feb 22, 2024
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: “I don't think that it is likely based on the data we have that the next move that we make will be a rate hike…It is more likely ... we hold the policy rate where it is.." May 14, 2024
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: Now expects one rate cut this year, in the fourth quarter, down from two previously (April 3, 2024). "The existence of this potential exuberance means that we have to be very cautious about when we do that first move, and it may mean that it has to happen later." May 21, 2024
Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed." May 17, 2024
John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: Three rate cuts in 2024 is "a reasonable kind of starting point." (Feb 28, 2024)
"At some point, we'll want to be more neutral and that means a lower interest rate …I don't see that happening…in the very near term…we do need to get this greater confidence in inflation, and I'm not seeing signs that the maximum employment goal is at risk." May 15, 2024
Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, 2024 voter*: “I would not think that that’s still appropriate,” in reference to her previous expectation for three rate cuts in 2024 (May 20, 2024). "I need to see a few more months of inflation data that looks like it is coming down." May 21, 2024
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: "It is too early to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long lasting." May 20, 2024
Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: Lower consumer inflation in April was “good, but still not where we are trying to get.” May 16, 2024
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: "We will need to allow our restrictive policy some further timeto continue its work." May 20, 2024
Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "I am prepared to be patient." May 14, 2024
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "In the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy.” May 21, 2024.
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: Penciled in two 2024 rate cuts in March. "We probably need to sit here for a while longer until we figure out where underlying inflation is headed." May 15, 2024
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "Fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time." March 25, 2024
Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: "I think it's just too early to think about cutting rates." May 10, 2024
Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: "If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate." April 3, 2024
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: Three rate cuts this year is "a very reasonable baseline." (April 2, 2024) "I'm in a wait-and-see mode.” May 9, 2024.
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: At the median Fed expectation for three rate cuts in 2024 (March 25, 2024). ”I'm optimistic that we're continuing on this downward trajectory" for inflation. May 15, 2024
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: Expects "in the range of two" rate cuts for 2024 (April 11, 2024) “We're in a period when patience really matters.” May 21, 2024
*Mester hits the Fed banks' mandatory retirement age in June; if a new Cleveland Fed president is not in place by the Fed's July 30-31 meeting, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.
Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who started as the St. Louis Fed's president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama
