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Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:55 a.m. EDT Comex 2 August 2022 $1,796.20 (Basis the October 2022 Comex Contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,780, $1,760
Initial Timeframe: 2 August 2022 to 12 August 2022
CPM had been projecting a spike lower in gold prices during the summer months, saying it could fall to $1,680 or even $1,650. We had stated that any such spike down would likely be short-lived. Gold fell to $1,678.40 on 14 July and has since recovered back to around $1,800. The price rally could extend, with a further $20 rise to $1,820 possible, but it may be more likely that profit taking sets in.
Interest rates have softened and market expectations of future interest rate moves have softened. While many are looking at May 2023, that is a long way off, and the Fed is unlikely to loosen significantly in the intervening 10 months.
Oil prices are off roughly $25 per barrel, more than half of the increase they registered from October to June. Equity markets remain volatile. The dollar showed several days of profit-taking and weaker levels after a couple months of strength, but today is showing signs that the period of lower dollar exchange rates may be ending.
In this environment CPM would recommend selling gold on a short, short term basis, with an initial target of $1,780 and a secondary target of $1,760.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
