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Time Stamp
Prices as of 9:48 a.m. EDT Comex 5 August 2022 $1,786.30 (Basis the October 2022 Comex Contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,755
Initial Timeframe: 5 August 2022 to 12 August 2022
After rising above CPM Group’s last buy trade recommendation with a target of $1,800, the price of gold has fallen sharply in response to a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report. The strength in the U.S. labor market should keep the Federal Reserve focused on rasing rates and should reverse market expectations of a slowdown by the Fed in tightening monetary policy. While gold prices are expected to soften on the basis of this changed monetary policy expectation in the market, gold prices are likely to remain supported, at least on Friday 5 August, due to the escalation of tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan. China is two days through its four day planned military drills. The drills are a major escalation compared to past drills. Markets are unlikely to want to sell gold further ahead of the weekend when there is a possibility of the China-Taiwan situation getting worse. If the drills are competed on Sunday 7 August without any surprises gold prices should be expected to resume their journey lower, with initial support at $1,755, but with potential to fall back to $1,740 or even $1,680.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
