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Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:44 a.m. EST 2 March 2023 $1,843.50 (Basis the April 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,815
Initial Timeframe: 2 March 2023 to 17 March 2023
Gold reversed course over that last couple of days after having bottomed out at $1,810.80 on 28 February. Prices reached $1,852.50 yesterday. Part of the increase in prices from the recent lows was due to some short covering, a slight reversal in the U.S. dollar from an appreciating trend, and slightly weaker economic data for the U.S. than anticipated.
This appears to be a short-term rally that could be giving way to a longer downward trend that has been in place since prices peaked in early February. Next Friday’s employment report will be important to see which push or pull on economic strength it suggests is more likely.
The past few weeks continue to suggest better than expected economic conditions and still unacceptably high inflation for the near term for the United States. This suggests continued monetary tightening and an appreciating U.S. dollar, all of which would be expected to weigh on gold prices over the next few months. Technical support levels appear increasingly vulnerable until between $1,800 to $1,810. Prices could easily fall toward these levels in the week ahead.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM's analyses provided in CPM's monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm's price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM's preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
