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Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:22 p.m. EST 2 May 2023 $2,026.20 (Basis the June 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,980 - $2,050
Initial Timeframe: 2 May 2023 to 12 May 2023
Gold prices have been moving on either side of $2,000 for the most part since the middle of April. CPM still sees gold prices as more likely to break out toward the downside within the next few weeks, but in the interim there is scope for prices to move higher. Today prices rose sharply and tested $2,028.80 before easing.
There continue to be many concerns about the economy and market in general. It is not just how the markets will react to the Fed’s monetary policy decision released tomorrow, but more recently prices appear to be supported by concerns about the U.S. government not able to pay its debt should the debt ceiling not be increased. There continue to be many moving parts that could push markets in either direction.
CPM expects prices to head lower over the next month or more, but the next 24 to 48 hours are far less clear. The Fed almost certainly will raise interest rates Wednesday, but it is unclear how the markets will react to the comments issued by the Fed about the next steps monetary policy could take.
Additionally, concerns about stability in the banking sector continue to linger. Three ‘ideosyncratic’ or special-situation banks have had troubles. There probably are more out there. And all those other risks and uncertainties. In this environment, prices may hold up a bit more than expected, but prices are expected to eventually head lower beyond the extremely short term. Stand aside for now, but as mentioned in the previous Trade Recommendation, be ready to sell once prices top out.
CPM may issue new Trade Recommendations within the next days, after the Fed announcements Wednesday.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.
Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper
