CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:43 a.m. EDT 20 March 2024 $2,158.10 (Basis the April 2024 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,110
Initial Timeframe: 20 March 2024 to 3 April 2024
Gold prices rallied from an intraday low of $2,047 on 1 March to set record highs during the first half of March. Prices rose for seven days to set a record high of $2,203 on 8 March before retreating.
On a fundamental basis it appears that gold may have risen too high too quickly. On a technical basis, in the very short term, prices have been trending lower over the past seven days, testing support at $2,150. If this level is broken the next stop could be $2,110.
Of course there is scope for prices to head higher once more. Prices are literally in uncharted territory, making it difficult to forecast technical trading patterns with no prices patterns as a guide. However, at this point CPM sees the odds of a price decline over the next several days to be greater than the potential for a sustained price rally.
There is scope for a reactionary price movement following the Federal Reserve meeting and announcements later today. We expect no change in monetary action or stance, with most markets looking at what the Fed’s economic projections might suggest about future interest rate policies. It most likely would take a much weaker economic and financial environment for the Fed to decide to lower interest rates.
Additional weight on gold has been an appreciating dollar, although there remains some seasonal strength.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.
Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper
