CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:43 a.m. EDT 3 September 2024 $2,516.30 (Basis the December 2024 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,420 - $2,575
Initial Timeframe: 3 September 2024 to 17 September 2024
Gold prices reached a record intraday high of $2,570.40 on 20 August. Prices have tried to retest resistance levels since then, but have been unable to top that record price. Technically prices have been on a downward trend the last few days. Today prices tested a low of $2,504.40 before recovering.
There is scope for lower prices, but given the surge in uncertainty about the political environment around the world as well as in the U.S. elections the overriding direction in the next two months or longer seems toward higher prices. These political concerns have been mentioned in previous Trade Recommendations, other CPM publications and media. What happens in politics is nearly impossible to predict, which is partly or some would say mainly the reason why gold prices have been rising to record highs over the past several years.
There also is concern about the financial and economic landscape. Later this week there will be data that may provide some indications of the direction of the U.S. economy and the potential for firmer direction on where interest rates may be headed, the potential pace of reductions. Employment data for the U.S. economy have the potential to move markets sharply later this week.
The current or ultra short term view for the next two weeks is that there is scope for prices to move lower on a technical basis, but this could all change by week’s end. Therefore, the Stand Aside recommendation remains in place for the next two weeks. While we do not like to issue Stand Aside recommendations, we must note it is the prudent thing to advise. We assume most readers of CPM’s research have core long gold positions that they are holding for the longer term. Our Stand Aside recommendations are not to dispose of such positions, but also not to be adding to their positions necessarily at current record prices.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
