S&P 500 gave a little preview of FOMC volatility, with first the upswing to capitalize on for clients, and then a sharp intraday decline I warned clients about too. The same concerns interest rate sensitive plays watchout for buying climax (plain rejection to go up) followed by decline.
Macroeconomically, that was justified by good retail sales figure lifting up 25bp cut odds – subsequently countered by 50bp trial balloons by select public speakers. The uncertainty about 25bp vs. 50bp cut is immense, and the real question being what's the prevailing expectation now, and I'm leaning towards it being 50bp in the end. Reassuring 50bp cut to start with, markets are being convinced.
Quoting Sunday's analysis and developing the thoughts much further for clients in the premium sections (plenty of Telegram and Twitter coverage follows):
(…) Will we get the reassuring 25bp cut that I had been a fan of, or is the new favorite of 50bp the reassuring one (no asleep at the wheel) now? Given what I see happening in various sectors and even individual names, I have an answer below for clients.
… the put to call ratio...just so, so complacent…
… positioning for a bullish outcome... is actually so strong that the ratio of stocks trading above various moving averages, is at levels associated with local tops being formed. Caution is warranted as volume is picking up.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.
Let's mve right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today's full scale article contains 3 more of them, with commentaries.
Tired of seeing those red boxes instead of way more valuable information? Try the premium services based on what and how you trade.
Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is a small part of my site's daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. Forget not the lively intraday Telegram channels for indices, stocks, gold and oil - here is how you can join any advantageous combination of these.
Go beyond the free Monica's Insider Club serving instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Thank you,
