opinion

Gold's rally might have reached a short-term top

Kitco Media
By Gary Wagner
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Gold prices are showing significant signs that a price correction is underway. Today gold pricing continued to decline by an additional $24.40. This followed last Friday’s $14.00, or -0.53%, price drop. It’s possible that Friday’s modest decline was an indication that the recent bullish trend had concluded. 

Today Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's spoke at the National Association for Business Economics conference. Powell's comments made it clear that the previous 50-basis point rate cut should not be interpreted as a precursor to further 50-basis point cuts. Powell stated that any further cuts will be data-dependent and some of that data will be released this week, with the biggest economic report being the jobs report for September on Friday. 

Currently, the FedWatch tool is giving a 62.9% probability of a 25-basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting, and a 37.1% chance of a 50-basis point cut.

Another aspect suggesting that gold may correct further is its amazing run-up this quarter. The third quarter concluded today, and it saw the yellow metal’s largest gain for a single quarter since the first quarter of 2016. Gold’s gains during Q3 were approximately 13%, or $300. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of gains, totaling around $768 (42%). This was the largest gain over four quarters since 2008.

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Neither recent heightened tensions in the Middle East nor China's monetary stimulus efforts have been sufficient to bolster gold prices. This supports our long-standing technical model that assumes gold futures could find a short-term top at around $2,700. 

The recent assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah by Israel has introduced further instability in the Middle East. Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, said that it remains unclear whether this targeted action, following a series of covert operations and airstrikes, will lead to an Israeli ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

Our forecast calls for a correction taking us to either $2,630 or $2,590 based on Fibonacci retracement levels of wave three that spans from $2,350 to the all-time highs in gold futures above $2,700. 

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Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner has been a technical market analyst for 25 years. A frequent contributor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine, he has also written for Futures Magazine as well as Barrons. He is the executive producer of "The Gold Forecast," a daily video newsletter.

He has been a speaker for financial seminars including Futures West and the Dow Jones Financial Symposium which travels throughout the world.. Coauthor of "Trading Applications Of Japanese Candlestick Charting" a John Wiley publication.

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