CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:33 a.m. EDT 9 October 2024 $2,632.10 (Basis the December 2024 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,580
Initial Timeframe: 9 October 2024 to 23 October 2024
Stoploss: $2,660
Gold prices have come off their record $2,708.70 high from 26 September. CPM’s 2 October Gold Trade Recommendation was a Sell recommendation with a downside target of $2,620. Today prices touched an intraday low of $2,627.60 and as this Trade Recommendations was being written gold was hovering above this level. Gold prices are testing a trend line that has been in place since late July 2024. If prices settle below this level, they could make a run for $2,595. There has been an inclination to sell in October for many asset classes over the years. Gold has been no exception. Investors appear to be leaning toward taking profits on gold since it is up more than 25% year-to-date.
This said, with all the concern about the political environment and how this could affect the economy there also has been an inclination for investors to still hold on to their gold holdings. Any further weakness in gold prices could be large in size but short in timing. If prices are likely to fall further, they are likely to do so within the next few days, given the approach of the U.S. elections in four weeks and their possible aftermath.
On a technical basis if gold firmly breaks below support levels then prices could head lower. As of now there is some initial support between $2,600 and $2,610, but a test toward $2,580 is possible.
Once the selling subsides gold prices could head higher once more as the end of October nears and the U.S. presidential and congressional elections approach. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the political friction within the U.S. all are helping to support gold prices, in addition to the many other factors discussed in CPM Group reports and media.
NOTE: With this issue CPM is adding Stoploss levels to its Trade Recommendations. CPM has tracked the hypothetical returns of its Gold Trade Recommendations since 2018 with and without Stoploss levels added to them. The use of stoploss levels significantly improves the hypothetical returns.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
