Bitcoin closed up an impressive 10% yesterday, a move not seen in years. The market is buzzing, and it's hard not to feel like we're witnessing something bigger: the potential beginning of a super cycle. This over-extended move echoes previous bull markets, including 2020 and 2016, when the BTC price surged dramatically. However, this time the setup feels different, sparking talk of a super cycle that could push prices further than many expect.
The Super Cycle Concept: Revisiting a Myth?
Back in 2019 and 2020, crypto enthusiasts often spoke of a "Super Cycle" – a cycle where Bitcoin and altcoins would soar relentlessly, fueled by massive inflows and unrelenting bullish sentiment. However, 2020's cycle was marred by interruptions, including the COVID crash and Coinbase's IPO, which led to a shortened bull run. Many metrics indicated that March 2021, rather than later that year, was the true top of the cycle. Monthly RSI and trading volume on Glassnode metrics confirmed this, even though BTC briefly regained momentum later that year.
What lessons can we learn from this? The pattern is consistent: when volume peaks and RSI on the monthly chart falls below 70, it typically signals the end of a bull cycle. Looking ahead, however, the current setup points more toward a 2017-style "blow-off top" rather than a double top. In other words, we're in the early stages of what could be a dramatic run-up.
Where We Are Now: Signs of a Super Cycle
Examining the 2016 and 2020 bull cycles reveals similar signals that define today's market. Both 2016 and 2020 saw BTC's price skyrocket as RSI went overbought on the monthly timeframe, only to dip and rally again. Like those cycles, the current market shows multiple bullish indicators converging, suggesting a potential super cycle.
What could fuel this super cycle? Several factors align:
- Increased liquidity in the market
- Favorable market and geopolitical conditions
- Strong performance in traditional finance (TradFi) markets
- Rising demand for BTC and crypto
These conditions set the stage for a powerful upward trend that could exceed expectations. With BTC moving into new highs, we may be witnessing the beginning of a super cycle, as favorable conditions make BTC a more attractive investment.
Finding Entry Points in a Bullish Market
For those looking to capitalize on strong trends, there are reliable strategies for entering bullish markets. I've previously discussed four methods in depth, which you can check out in the linked YouTube video. Additionally, the TBO indicator on the 4-hour chart is valuable for identifying pullback entries – TBO Springboard Bounces offer effective re-entry points on super bullish charts.
The message is clear: this cycle has the potential to surpass our expectations. Keep an eye on the key signals from past cycles, and be prepared for the possibility that this could be the super cycle crypto enthusiasts have been waiting for.
